Review: Has the Sri Lankan Issue Left India's Orbit?

by Yatheenthira

In the backdrop of the success of the America-supported resolution regarding Sri Lanka through support of 23 countries, an opinion has arisen. There are opinions like that coming out from within the Tamil National Alliance as well as outside of it. The gist of those opinions is that the Sri Lankan issue has left the reach of India.

India, which has given its support to the previous American-led resolutions, avoided voting during the most recent resolution. But, India's following actions did not affect the success of the resolution in any way whatsoever. America got that resolution to pass without India's support at all. Based on this idea alone, some form the opinion that all issues have left the reach of India.

A few days ago, a senior media friend contacted me and asked: "Issues have moved past India. So why does the TNA leadership need to be clinging onto India? You've been saying such things like, 'Up until now, India has occupied an unavoidable position in South Asian issues, even history can't deny that and march on.' But now all that has been proven a lie! America went above India and had brought that resolution. What important position can possibly India hold from here on out? After this, why should they be dragged along with India?" I understood that he was asking me these questions in light of my recently published opinions on India. Is this perspective actually correct? Have issues actually moved beyond India's reach?

If you look at the surface, you will see the appearance that issues are out of India's reach. But that is not true. Like I said in my last post, India's decision to abstain from voting was made entirely based on its long-term interests. India's class of foreign policy makers may have taken this decision with 2 ideas in mind. One, to eliminate the growing influence of China in Ceylon. In order to eliminate it so, it is essential to remain neutral. Two, the future consequences that would result, as the regional superpower, due to expressing support to an international investigation of Sri Lanka by the UN Human Rights Council. That is to say, giving support to an international investigation within the borders of South Asia would open up the possibility for the demand of such investigations of India. Another country could ask for an investigation of India on the basis of the international rules that are purported to transcend countries' long-term interests. India could have had these two ideas in mind. Because for America, which continues to bring pressures in the Sri Lankan issue, you can't guess its long-term interests. So it's not hard to understand that as a regional superpower, India would be making its decisions with its long-term interests in mind.

India needs to be understood against this backdrop accordingly. Based on this one single event, a diminished view India's importance will not be a correct perspective. Currently, India is the only country that has the capability to guide the course of the issue of Sri Lankan Tamils. It is with this in mind that the TNA leadership has been maintaining patience with India. The TNA leadership is well aware of the long-term consequences of betraying India. For this reason, Sampanthan is maintaining patience without betraying India. But not everyone in the TNA has such patience.

Those who argue that issues are beyond India's influence contort their arguments to include the South Africa issue as proof of their argument. As they believe, if South Africa becomes involved in reconciliation efforts in Sri Lanka, then through that India's importance will further dwindle. But South Africa also did not vote in favour of the America-led resolution. It also abstained from voting, like India. Both GoSL and the TNA have expressed interest recently in including South Africa in reconciliation initiatives in Ceylon. At the same time that a few criticisms have come out about this, in reality, enough information has not come out about what exactly South Africa's role is. The TNA continues to handle this issue in a closed-room setting.


As some say, would South Africa's intervention weaken India's importance? One issue needs to be understood clearly regarding India. India will not intervene in any issue that doesn't make it feel uneasy about is regional interests. Definitely India's regional importance is not challenged in any way by South Africa's intervention. So India will not bother one bit about it. Any country will weigh its interests before getting involved in foreign affairs. When weighing the circumstances thusly, India's support will always be indispensable. No one who gets involved in Ceylon will do so by sidelining or creating enmity with India. There is no need to do so, either.


Therefore, India always has a reluctance in getting involving in the Sri Lankan issue. This is a political reality. If the Tamil side thinks that it shall operate by casting this reality aside, the effects be very far-reaching. As far as the people in the Tamil National Alliance are concerned, there are two groups. One, people who have continued to nurture close relations with India since the beginning. Two, people who are oppositional to India. If we look at the people who positionally oppose India, most of them learned politics during the time when the Tigers determined Tamil politics. In the classes of the Tigers' political colleges, positions that were in opposition to India were always imparted. Whenever such people get any such opportunity, they always take such opportunity to bring attention to the characterisation of India as the enemy of the Tamil people.


In actuality, India is neither the Tamil people's friend, nor enemy. Rather, it is the only country that has the power to exercise the right to involve itself in the affairs of Tamil people. Because India directly neighbours Ceylon, it is a country that cannot be avoided by Tamils at any time. Therefore, just by looking at the single issue of the America-led resolution at the UNHRC alone, it is completely incorrect to estimate that India has lost its relevance.