Review: Is India interested in regime change?

by Yatheenthira
Dec 25, 2014

After I already painted the picture regarding this same topic in a previous article, news reports have come out that ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party's ministers, Dilan Pereira and Mahinda Yapa Abeywardene, declared that America's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is conspiring to break up their own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). These same ministers said so at a press conference held at no less than the headquarters of the SLFP. People from the government's side continue to make the accusation that Western powers's scheming is at play behind-the-scenes of the break from the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition by SLFP Secretary General Maithiripala Sirisena. In general, whenever they mention Western powers, they are really talking about America! Now, the situation has changed to the point where these accusation are being made quite openly.

In the environment resulting from the conclusion of the war in Ceylon, it is America that has taken leadership of the international pressures places on Sri Lanka. The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) has launched investigations of Sri Lanka with the effect that the Mahinda Rajapakse-led government has been experiencing continual difficulties. The result of America's continued pressure is that the UNHRC is now at a point where it is to conduct its investigations of Sri Lanka. With such a backdrop as this, at a time when President Rajapakse is trying to run for president for a 3rd time, indeed unexpectedly, SLFP Secretary General Maithiripala Srisena -- who up until this point has been a strong supporter of Rajapakse's actions -- left the ruling UFPA coalition and threw his hat into the ring to contest against Mahinda Rajapakse.

In this situation, you can't easily say that the average Singala populace won't take to the accusations that America is behind this. When you ask the question, "Why couldn't it be America, who continues to bear down on Sri Lanka, be the one behind it all?" it appeals to the kind of citizen who has been won over by Sinhala nationalism. That is why antipathy towards America on the stages of campaign rallies may intensify in the upcoming days of the election campaign.

However, neither government members nor Southern Sinhala nationalist organisations have publicised any sort of accusation or doubt in relation to India. Notwithstanding all of that, as the Mahinda Rajapakse government is criticised for moving ever closer with China, India should indeed truly take great interest in regime change in SL. But it doesn't appear that India shows much inclination about the election. At the same, when talking to people who have taken part in Indian embassy meetings, it can be discerned that there is no strong belief that a regime change will take place. It can also be discerned that India does not believe that Mahinda Rajapakse's influence or support base has significantly diminished, unlike what his detractors say.

Here, another issue needs to be paid attention to. There are differing opinions about how the Modi-led Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) in India's Centre, from its perspective, will proceed to view a regime change. Based on a few pieces of information received, the BJP-led ruling policy-making elites don't have much enthusiasm for regime change. The reason being, currently, SL's defence institutions are strong. SL's intelligence apparatus is also strong. The reason for this the defence institutions currently in existence. But if a regime change happens suddenly, a sudden faltering in those institutions would also occur. Sri Lanka would be pushed suddenly into a lifeless state. Generally speaking, when a country's domestic security is in a lifeless state, many different forces will attempt to use that lifeless state advantageously. Global extremists are included in that bunch.

Given that news reports have already come out indicating that some Islamic extremist forces, which have put India under their crosshairs, are possibly using Ceylon as a staging ground, there is no way that BJP-led India is not paying attention to these issues. Already, people from Sri Lanka have been arrested in India. Therefore, India will definitely keep them in mind when it considers regime change. It will weigh out the pros and cons of regime change.

India doesn't care how Tamils perceive regime change. Tamils will understand regime change however they will. The understanding from the Tamil side may be things like it will facilitate democracy flourishing, or good governance will finally dawn. But India and America will only see issues from the perspective of their long-term interests. The Tamil national issue is a problem solely for Tamils, and it is not a problem for anyone else. Only when the day comes when Tamils realise this that there will be a change in the ground situation. India is continuing to observe the situation.

But another issue can be observed here. The Govt of SL continues to accuse America. But Ranil Wickremasinghe, leader of the opposition United National Party, speaks publicly in strident opposition to China. Ranil has boldly stated that as soon as he comes to office, he will shut down China's projects. Ranil said this in a meeting with the leaders of the tourist souvenir industry. He also said then that once the current government is defeated, as soon as the new regime comes to power, the Colombo city harbour project being carried out with Chinese backing will be completely dismantled.

In the backdrop of SL accusing America, Ranil speaking out specifically against China in a way that would warm American hearts only serves in the end to strengthen the SL government's accusations. While on the one hand, the upcoming election is one for the people of Sri Lanka, the election has also become one for powerful forces of America, India, and China. And India is clearly in the picture, here.