Opinion: India on the fence

by Gogol G.



India blows hot and cold on issues, tries to be all things to all people, and remains a mystery to us. Where does it stand? Who are its friends and foes? And does at least India know these answers?

There is quite a bit to celebrate. It was India's lunar mission that finally proved what astronomers had speculated, that the Moon held large amounts of water in its surface. In the club of global superpowers, nuclear weapons and a space program are a virtual entry ticket and a status symbol. As for what it takes to be regarded as a global power, let's just say that people are afraid of China's ability to shoot down satellites 500 miles in orbit not because of the implications for the Chinese space program.

But there is also quite a bit to worry about. About a month ago, the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh died in a helicopter crash over a remote hilly forest area. Now, helicopter crashes happen, and perhaps more often in India than elsewhere, but doesn't this seem the least bit fishy? He was critical to the Congress party in the region, and was critical to Congress' resounding victory in the May national election. He iswas young with many more years left, but also a popular figure, even among the rural poor. The rural poor are an important base of recruitment for the Naxalites/Communists plaguing India (who merged with the Maoist flavour of the Communist Party India in 2004). They are strong enough in Andhra Pradesh that there were peace talks in 2004 between the state government and the Naxalites/Maoists. That's a bit of a strategic loss. After it all, India declared that there was no foul play. Even if I could believe that this helicopter crash was an accident, this seems too similar to the 2005 helicopter crash of John Garang in the hilly areas of Southern Sudan. John Garang was the leader of the Southern Sudanese rebels before coming leader of Southern Sudan in the 2005 peace treaty, to the chagrin of the Sudanese government. The last parallel here, and you shouldn't be surprised to hear this, is that China is a supporter the Sudanese government regime against which Garang fought.

Now, some ministers in India think the problem is the "media hype" about India's problems with China, and that India have a solid relationship with China. But that explanation only wishes away the fact that Chinese incursions into India doubled from 2007 to 2008. The next war between India and China will take place in the Indian state of Denial Pradesh. It has been said that India's enemies would see it not to take on India head-on, but to cause it to bleed from a thousand cuts. I think the same "mysterious force" that could've trained the Pakistanis involved in India's Mumbai attacks might be the same one that tipped the balance in the Sri Lanka war and led to the Tiger's defeat. When India's response to the Tigers' defeat is "the Tigers folded faster than we expected", it is likely that this "mysterious force" is more capable than India. There are some of the older generation in India who tell themselves that only India and China matter in the region, and it may be true right now. But India continues to respond to China's smile diplomacy with a smile for the sake of trade profits, and it sounds like the abusee in an abusive relationship.

The involvement of India and the US in Sri Lanka is indeterminate. Many political dealings are happening, and none of them seem to really punish the government. If anything, it's the opposite. On the one, India says it will provide artificial limbs to the survivors. India says lots of things, but how much of it is true? Because at the same time, India's treatment of the Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka during the war periods in 2009 is apalling. Those refugees, residing in the Tamil-speaking state of Tamil Nadu no less, say that had they known they'd be living in such subhuman conditions in India, they wouldn't have left in the first place. They say this despite the conditions of the internment camps that make them more like death-camps. With the monsoon season oncoming, Britain has said that there's a high chance that the surviving inmates might die before they're freed. The world has changed, alliances have changed. When India is ready to break this spell, Tamils will be ready to work together for a common cause. Until then, we'll be waiting, while the internment camp inmates keep dying.